Des Supple – Founder and CEO of Event Horizon Research
Des Supple has over 20 years experience as an award winning economist and macro strategist on both the buy and sell-side. He previously worked at Nomura in London (where he was Head of Global Market Research, managing 600 analysts world-wide across all asset classes), and Barclays `Capital in Singapore (where he was Head of Asian Research and Head of Global Emerging Market Research). Des was also a co-founder and Portfolio Manager of LDFM Asia, the Asian arm of the UK based hedge fund, London Diversified.
Des has a wide experience as an economist, having been chief economist for Asia, China and Japan at Barclays and Chief Economist for EMEA at Nomura. As a strategist, Des has driven interest rate strategy for the US, Europe, Japan, Australasia and Asia ex-Japan (Nomura), has been responsible for global Emerging Market Strategy and Asian FX and Credit Strategy (Barclays) and at LDFM Asia developed the macro framework that drove the directional element of the trading portfolio.
There are a number of key macro themes that have been of particular interest to Des in recent years, some of which he has traced for the best part of two decades:
- The secular decline in global inflation, and the accompanied decline in the term structure of many key interest rate markets. (“Deflation Des” has been a common sobriquet over the years.)
- A slow-burning global growth crisis.
- The limits and market consequence of monetary expansion.
- The global consequences and domestic sustainability of China’s investment and credit driven growth model.
- The market’s tendency to under-price market regime shifts and the increasing imperative for investors to embed convexity considerations into their portfolios.
- The economic and market consequences of regulatory changes.
Des also has a keen interest in Quantitative Investment Strategies. While at Nomura he established a global multi-asset derivative capability to support the growing number of clients using derivatives as hedging and investing tools. He also focused the global quant team towards the generation of Quantitative Investment Strategy Products, which saw the creation of a synthetic asset management capability within research.
Event Horizon Research
Event Horizon Research has been founded to continue to analyse the economic themes and leverage the analytical framework that Des has been propounding for years and in cases decades. Our focus remains on assessing the financial market implications of a secular battle facing global policy makers – to combat the deepening downside risks to economic growth and price stability. In short, we believe that the 2008-2009 financial crisis has morphed from a liquidity and credit crisis into a slower-burning growth crisis, one that has profound implications for the potential for event shocks, regime shifts among policy makers, the mis-pricing of credit risk, and a reshaping of the body politic.
As policymakers fight this secular battle – or at least begin to acknowledge the scale of the challenge they face – we maintain our multi-year assumption that global monetary policy will be loosened far more dramatically than few thought possible even in the depths of the financial crisis. Unorthodox policies will increasingly become the norm. However, we also retain the view that monetary policy alone cannot combat the growth crisis, particularly when regulatory policy – and in all to many cases, fiscal policy – is dulling the impact of loose policy. Adverse, unintended outcomes are a growing consequence of a poorly coordinated policy response. These global themes will be explored and transformed into actionable trade ideas and investment themes.
The geographical focus of Event Horizon Research will be the world’s major economies (particularly the US, Japan, Eurozone and the UK) and the economies and markets of Australasia and Asia ex-Japan. However, when compelling risk-reward trades or investment themes emerge, there will be occasional forays into other regions.
In terms of asset markets, the primary focus will be FX and Interest Rates. However, credit, equity and commodity markets will also be analysed when compelling opportunities emerge or where these comprise the optimal method of monetising a view.